Good Rainy Monday Morning to ya!
Seems we all wake up to a whole new set of Local and National economic news every day.
Occasionally, it seems things are moving forward . . .
a tone of optimism creeps in . . .
and then WHAMMO – Another “Expert” squashes the hope with a dreary “outlook”!
Perhaps the smart folks amongst us are sticking their heads in the sand to insulate themselves from the waves or turmoil 🙂
Because Housing is often at the core of much of the news (and I am a Real Estate Professional), I stay vigilantly tuned in to it all and do my best to UNDERSTAND what’s going on . . . so I can translate the “expert Speak” into plain English for my Clients and Associates.
The REAL challenge for all of us is sifting the truth from the “spin” – Because the media is BIASED. (A Measure of Media Bias – Tim Groseclose)
REALLY! Anyone with a TV set can find a channel on which they hear what they WANT to hear (Instead of the impartial truth).
Last week, our local REALTOR Association (GNAR) held our annual convention. Usually, the “Keynote Speaker” is of the motivational/business tips variety, but this year we had the good fortune of hearing from Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist Dr Frank Nothaft who gave us an up-dated (and localized) version of this March 3, 2011 speech summarized here Economic and Housing Outlook for 2011.
Dr Nothaft was particularly entertaining when he attempted to be funny (He’s an economist) . . . and he had some VERY interesting analysis which I construed to be GOOD NEWS for us here in Middle Tennessee.
The undertone mantra was one of thinking LONG term and not relying on instant gratification or a “magic pill” sudden recovery – Dr Nothaft graciously termed it “Not Robust.”
While he gave the probability of another dip recession at 1:3, he did say that Middle TN seems to have found the bottom (We’re staring the journey UP) and will not likely be significantly affected by that second dip.
Clearly, the most stifling economic indicator is the high unemployment. With employment being so shaky, most people are “worried” about their job security (or lack of job) and that no matter how low rates get and how great the deals available, will keep themselves out of the housing market.
For every piece of bad news Dr. Nothaft delivered, there was a glimmer of hope for Middle Tennessee . . .
We are faring better than most cities . . .
and our recovery has already begun!
So . . . Let’s just keep on keepin’ on and resolutely move ourselves forward inch by inch to continue to improve our LOCAL economy and create the jobs we need to generate a feeling of SECURITY . . . With that security will come more home sales . . . more home sales with lead a rebirth of the house CONSTRUCTION industry . . . which will provide MORE JOBS 🙂
Below are my tweets during Dr. Nothaft’s presentation (I take notes by Twitter from my phone) . . . You’ll see some interesting factoids . . . and hopefully feel a little better about our economic health here in Middle Tennessee.
As always, I am poised and ready to be your resource for all things Real Estate . . . Just contact me . . . I’ll tell the TRUTH!
“rent or buy – You’re paying for the house you occupy” Pat Zaby @ GNAR convention #in
GNAR membership Lunch – Dr Frank Nothaft – chief economist @ Freddie Mac
Double dip recession is 1:3 – recovery growth will show up in 12 SLOWLY- won’t feel robust – unemployment will stay over 8% #in
A little more fiscal stimulation will help – tax cuts – federal spending etc #in
07-09 CONTRACTION was severe – no robustness of recovery – economy needs to grow @ 3%/year to keep up w labor force growth – we R @ 1/2% #in
Housing market will remain VERY affordable – hoping buyers will get off the fence and take advantage #in
NASHVILLE’S MARKET HAS BOTTOMED OUT – & likely will begin improving #in
Where R the homebuyers? Feeling economically insecure – consumer confidence index still LOW – buyers are worried
Homebuyers are not buying because they hear prices are still FALLING – PROBABLY not true for Mid TN #in
Where R the homebuyers? Feeling economically insecure – consumer confidence index still LOW – buyers are worried #in
Large Inventory Surplus Remains in Market – excess supply of vacant for sale homes cumulative decline of 25-30% house values nationally #in
Nashville indexes – down 10-13% since 2007 peak – conclusion – we have already found the bottom & didn’t fall as far as the 25% Nat #in
Job loss is the main hardship reason among delinquent prime borrows – unemployment, loss of income, loss of business #in
This is the longest period of time since the 1930s the US economy has had unemployment above 8% – & it’s improving slowly #in
Recent default experience is unlike any previous business cycle since the 1930s – 5.6 conventional – subprimes @ 30% default #in
“You hear interest rated dropped to 3.75 for a 30 year fixed?” Jan Orga – so . . . Tell me why a home buyer wouldn’t buy a home NOW? #i