Whether You’re thinking about Buying or selling a house, NOW is statistical perfect storm

As the 1st quarter of 2013 comes to a close (on Easter Sunday), I’ve been thinking that this year is exceptional. Literally, the real estate market was VERY different only 6 months ago . . . and ALL of the difference has been GOOD.

I know that I (and and the Vital Few @ Pareto Realty) have been BUSY. In fact, we are looking at some CRAZY projections . . . more than double our personal volumes of sales over the past several years. Some folks might just chalk that up to our superior looks, talent, charisma, and commanding hold on the market . . . but that thinking appears to be flawed because we are hearing from other local REALTORS that they are BUSY.

“BUSY” can mean a lot of things and doesn’t always translate to real sales. We know that there are many instances of “Multiple Offers” appearing on new listings and listings that have been on the market for a long time. We know the Home Buyers are BUYING . . . and we sense that these Buyers are buying faster than Sellers are listing.

The result is a shortage of Housing inventory in virtually every segment of the market.

So . . . I decided to do some digging and some math to see if I could really get a grip on what’s happening. The first question I wanted to answer is:

“How many months of SUPPLY are there in various price ranges and areas?”

“How is this affecting VALUES?”

My sense is that the values are rising but not exponentially (yet) – so I’ll add some value analysis to the 2nd quarter report.

The one thing I can PROMISE to local House Buyers is that NOW is a sweet spot for values . . . so NOW is great time to BUY while rates are still low – The power of your buying dollar is going nowhere but DOWN for the remainder of this year (and probably longer). Every day, week, month you delay your purchase will indubitably result in the same amount of today’s money buying LESS house tomorrow.

Home Sellers . . . The time is PERFECT to list your house for sale because your house will get a LOT of attention. Beware, though, we are not in a market in which crazy price inflation will hold water. Just because the inventory is low doesn’t mean that values have (or can) hyper-inflate . . . Appraisals are still a necessary part of the process to keep us all “honest.”

Below is a spreadsheet of the numbers I pulled from January 1, 2013 to yesterday. These numbers do not reflect some closings (Yesterday, today, and tomorrow) but that should not skew the numbers as I’ve pulled them because I count “closed” and “Pending” and “Active With Contingency” as listings that have “Left the Market by being under contract”

Some folks won’t like my method . . . c’est la vie! ๐Ÿ™‚

So . . . Here’s what each number means:

I pulled data by zip in a variety of price ranges – $1-300k, $300-600K, $600-! Million, and over $1Million

For each price range, there are 2 columns

  • the first column says “A – Cty – %
    • A – The number of ACTIVE Listings (not counting any showing as contingent)
    • Cty – The number of Active Listings showing “Contingency – Under Contract”
    • % – The percentage of active listings shown to public viewers of Realtracs/Zillow/Trulia etc that are actually under contract
  • The Second column says “P – Cl – Mths”
    • P – The number of house currently PENDING
    • Cl – The number of house showing CLOSED between 1/1/2013 and today
    • Mths – The number of months worth of housing supply available
  • For condos, I did not break out price ranges but added the price of active and closed averages

Here’s a quick zip code analysis:

  • 37215 Green Hills
    • $0-300K is essentially non-existent. When something in this parameter pops on the arket, it’ll like sell immediately with multiple offers . . . These are most likely to be “swallowed” by in-fill developers.
    • $300-600K – LOTS of activity and a good amount of inventory relative to some of the others but still only 3 month supply – Sellers’ market by definition. A good part of that inventory (IMHO) is only there because it’s overpriced.
    • $600- 1M – Lots of houses on the market in this range and a fair number of sales . . . but still leans into the “Buyers'” market category (3-5 months) in terms of supply – 6 months
    • 1M + – Same as above – The luxury market is active but still holding more inventory than all others.
  • 37205
    • $0-300K – You might be surprised to see more activity in this range. It includes some areas other than Belle Meade (White Bridge Road and a small piece of West Meade) – With 1.71 Months of supply, it’s pure Seller market
    • $300-600K – MUCH more activity than above but same conclusion with 1.85 months supply
    • $600-1M – With 4.7 months of supply, this price range/location is nicely balance, but I am predicting that it’ll swing to the Seller Market side through the 2nd quarter
    • $1M+ – Lots of inventory (48) and not many sales (3 per month) – A sluggish 9 month supply for sellers
  • 37209
    • $0-300K – What has come on the market is SELLING – This is a pocket that needs more listings – only a little more than a 1 month supply . . . If you live in one of these houses, you could have a fast sale ๐Ÿ™‚
    • $300-600K – 3.22 Months supply – This is a healthy – almost balanced market . . . I think it’s stay balanced through the next quarter – a kinder, gentler market than some of the other West Nashville areas
    • $600-1M – Not much going on in this price range – 6 active listings and only 1 sale in the past 3 months – 9 month supply
    • $1M+ – Nothing to report
  • 37212
    • $0-300K – Very little action as $300K is the floor price in the Village – Just as the 37215/05 areas, most everything that sells under $300 will be to in-fill developers
    • $300-600K – List something in this price range and area, and it’ll sell immediately unless there’s something seriously wrong with the house or it’s grossly overpriced . . . and even then, it might sell in 45 days ๐Ÿ™‚
    • $600-1M – There’s a relatively lot of action in this price point – a nice mix of new construction and interesting rehabs – 1st quarter sales were fairly balanced but brisk . . . Multiple offer sightings frequently.
    • $1M+ – Surprising to me . . . very little action – a basically non-existent market . . . I think we’ll see more in this range/area in the second quarter
  • 37204
    • $0-300K – This is gonna sound a bit like a broken record, but . . . anything in this range is going to in-fill or rehab flippers – 12 South EXPLODED with this type of construction and it’s still going, BUT . . . The developers are starting to run out of “opportunities” there and are beginning to turn focus to other areas of Nashville
    • $300-600K – This is where things (the market) are COOKING. Lots of fun, new construction and rehab – Totally Sellers market with 1.61 months supply . . . The business district is drawing people to this area like flies to S___
    • $600-$1M – This segment might be (IMHO) the ONLY range/area that may be over-built – 19 active listings (none contingent) and only 2 pending with 6 closed in the 1st quarter – a 7 month supply spells some potential Buyer leverage (Strong negotiating position)
    • $1M+ – 4 on the market – 1 Pending – None closed in 3 months – This is over 12 month Supply – Virtually non-existent market
  • 37221
    • $0-300K – THIS surprised me – Bellevue is HOPPING in the under $300k range. 62 closed in the past 3 months – 56 pending and 44 under contingency contract (That’s 100 properties under contract) and only a 5 week supply – If you’ve been for the right time to sell in Bellevue under $300K, this is YOUR time
    • $300-600K – Not much activity, but enough to indicate a balanced market – 3.38 months supply might indicate slightly seller market, but I don’t think there’s enough data to confirm that ๐Ÿ™‚
    • $600-1M – 9 on the market . . . and very little to report for sales – 12+ month supply
    • $1M+ – 3 on the market – none sold – ???? (Non-existent market)
  • 37206
    • $0-300K – WOW! The East Side is ON FIRE! List it and it will sell – probably within a couple weeks of posting the sign – STRONG sellers market – Did you notice 54% of the listings showing active are actually under contract?
    • $300-600K – Almost as active as above with only 5 weeks of supply. the East side is now getting the attention of in-fill developers . . . New houses are popping up in all different neighborhoods – Some horizontal regime
    • $600-1M – Looks like this is where the East side draws the line . . . Non-existent market above $600,000 . . . I predict we’ll see some of these pop into view in the 2nd quarter
  • 37211
    • $0-300K Holy SMOKES! A LOT of activity in South Nashville – 122 closed in the past 3 months and 127 active listings and a total of 97 currently pending and contingent . . . 7 weeks of supply is all that’s there . . . Get’ while they’re HOT! I predict these values with rise in the 2nd quarter
    • $300-600K – Once you get over $300k in South Nashville, things tame down and it looks to be nicely balanced – I think more will happen as the Spring Market gains steam
    • Above $600K is relatively non-existent – 2 listings and no sales . . .
  • 37027
    • $0-300K – If you own something under $300K in this zip code and want to sell it, you have NO competition – There’s one on the market and it’s under contract
    • $300-600k – THIS is the HOT Sellers Market zone for Brentwood – 106 house are currently under contract – 61 closed in the past 3 months – @ 7 weeks of supply and shrinking – GREAT time to sell a house in this price range 37027
    • $600-1M – With 123 active listings, you’d think this would be all BUYERS Market, but NO – 78 are under contract and 62 have closed this year so far – at 3.29 months supply, it’s relatively balanced with a slight lean to sellers
    • $1M+ – These are FINALLY moving – With 20 under contract and 10 closed this year, 6.4 months of supply is likely shrinking – Still leaning on the buyers market side, but strong
  • 37067
    • $0-300K – Anything that goes on the market is selling in this price range for Franklin – Only about 3 weeks of inventory
    • $300-600k – VERY active – 119 houses under contract and only 58 available translates to less than a months supply – This is the HOTTEST Williamson county market
    • $600-1M – Much less action than Brentwood but moving and alive – Just on the Buyers market side of balanced
    • $1M+ – This is where the Franklin market is tough – 20 active listings and very few sales.

That’s what I have for houses . . . Here’re the condo Stats.

 

ย generally speaking, the condominium market has all but sold out in the past 6 months. Part of the factor is that there is virtually NO new construction coming into the inventory . . . and it looks like it’ll be a while (2 years) before anything significant shows up. so what we have on the ground is what we’ll have for a while. There are several buildings under construction but almost all of them are for rental apartments.

In EVERY zip code, there is less than a 2 month supply of condos . . .

What’s listed will SELL unless (again) it’s grossly overpriced and/or underconditioned.

There ya have it . . . the 1st quarter of 2013

If I didn’t run numbers for your area, and you want to know these stats for your area, contact me @ barry@paretorealtyllc.com and I’ll hook you up.

I and my team at Pareto Realty are poised and ready to serve ANY Home Buyers and Sellers throughout Middle Tennessee . . . You, your friends, family and work associates . . . neighbors . . .

We want to be YOUR resource for ALL things real estate in Middle TN.

PS . . . Stay tuned . . . our NEW website is going live in a couple of weeks . . . It’s REALLY AWESOME and will be an invaluable tool for Home Buyers and sellers as you navigate this process (It’s also a pretty incredible “back office” for REALTORS who join us)

Let’s ROCK into quarter 2 of 2013

Best

b

 

Published by Barry Owen

Strategist-CEO of Pareto Realty Real estate sales Professional Inviter-Facilitator-Practicer of Open Space Technology Opening safe space for people & organizations to self-organize around issues & opportunities BarryOwen.US Invite-Listen-Love

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