The text said: “STRONG Thuderstorms at 6:15 PM”
6:15 rolled past with beautiful, starry skies.
The forecasters said there would be 1-3″ of snow during the morning commute, so schools closed and many people did not go to work.
A few (and ONLY a few) snowflakes fell.
Why do we make plans based on these forecasts, if they’re so predictably innaccurate?
We do so because . . .
What if they’re RIGHT this time?
What if they’re wrong, and the weather is WORSE than they predict?
We always err on the side of caution, just in case . . . There’s too much at stake if we don’t and they’re right.
How could they be so wrong so much of the time?
I believe it’s because they rely on the accuracies of “computer models” which measure every facet of the atmosphere, analyze it all, and spit out the probable result based on Historical data . . . and they do this from an office in a large building with no windows.
For the past several months, I have been playing a game inside my head . . . I am outside a LOT and have taken on the hobby of being a weather forecaster based on what I see and feel. Sinus pressure = front moving in (rain and change in temperature) . . . It’s Spring, so we may have rain (heavy at times) every day accompanied by gusty winds and probably a dash of lightning then thunder . . . and so on . . . My guess is accurate about 80%, and I ain’t usin’ no stinkin’ computer.
The same principle applies to the real estate market.
There’s no amount of analyzation a person can do of the Historical data a dude can do that will accurately predict the market 6 months or 5 years from now.
We can “guess” based on prior trends and indicators from other industries (Unemployment, Auto sales, Wall Street, World events), but that’s about IT.
The best REALTORS are the ones who “get” all of the above at a very high level. These top performers are working every day IN their markets, and they FEEL shifts and recognize trends and adjust on the fly in their “NOW” approach to Real Estate sales.
and most of them don’t rely on the computer valuation models from their dark office in the bowels of a large building.
The internet will NEVER replace the intuition and wisdom of the local, boots on the ground REALTOR.
Connect with your REALTOR today, and ask about these things . . . I think you’ll be amazed by the depth of knowledge and perspective you’ll hear.
PS: I am broadcasting “BarrysDriveTime.com” every weekday morning on Facebook Live during my morning drive (Friend me here) – These “talks” are about life and Real Estate, and I am building an archive of them on our youtube channel here BarrysDriveTime.com – I’d love for you to check it out and offer some contructive feedback.