Monday Morning Coffee – Is this a Bubble?

“THIS Real Estate market is ON FIRE!

“Is this a Bubble?”

Could it be real, and will it last?

I hear these questions daily as the news media continues to blast out the great news of the Nashville Real Estate market turning out record sales each of the last several months. The numbers are consistently 20-25% increases over last year in terms of number of sales.

After such a painfully long period of “Downturn,” most folks aren’t quite ready to call what we are experiencing anything close to a solid recovery because there are some things that still need to be sorted out.

In the past 10 months, we have gone from too many houses and condos on the market to too few.

Builders are scrambling to find places to build, but they are having plenty of challenges including drastic increases in land and material costs (up to 30%) and some shortages of materials . . . all the while having to resort to unconventional funding. Most banks are still reluctant to finance speculative construction, so most of the new houses being built are privately funded or custom.

New condominium construction is virtually non-existent, yet I am aware of 6 MAJOR “Luxury Apartment Building” projects under way (and am still catching wind of others on the way).

So . . . Bubble?

No! I think not.

I do think we have had a “healthy market correction” which has brought us “back” to where we were just prior to the recession . . . and this lack of inventory, albeit frustrating to prospective house buyers, actually may serve as a cleansing of our palate . . .

We’ve successfully hit the “Reset Button” and are now in creative mode as we build a new marketplace.

Nothing in this new market will ever be the same as it was “back in the day” (Pre  2007) . . . Everything went all fluid, and those of us in the thick of it are seeing what we can gel out of this goop.

One thing I know is certain . . . Creativity and Spirit don’t flow by the clock . . . They’ve got their own tempo and pace and tend to show up in fits and starts as we humans execute newly inspired ideas that seem to appear out of the ether.

None of this is happening according to anyone’s “PLAN” . . . and it’s all a bit airy-fairy and goofy.

Whatever Happens is the only that could given our current state of affairs.

whenever it starts is the right time . . . and whoever comes are and will be the right people.

Let go of this need to know the future based on the trends from the past.

Those days have gone.

So here we are.

I am as invigorated and ALIVE as I have EVER been in my 20+ years as a Real Estate Broker and Sales Professional.

No bubbles here!

but expect to be surprised – ALWAYS!

If you want to know what’s happening in YOUR tiny slice of the market, connect with me . . . don’t listen to the media because they only know the broader picture as fed to them by the talking heads 🙂

I look forward to talking with you.

How are things in YOUR world/industry?

Published by Barry Owen

Strategist-CEO of Pareto Realty Real estate sales Professional Inviter-Facilitator-Practicer of Open Space Technology Opening safe space for people & organizations to self-organize around issues & opportunities BarryOwen.US Invite-Listen-Love

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1 Comment

  1. Barry Habib in a seminar attended about 60 days ago said that housing is expected to rise 40% over five years.

    This is just a return of housing to the normal percentage of pretax income for a housing payment.

    In addressing the expectation of rising rates, he said that no one expects this to be a wage less recovery as the American worker is optimized, in Third World countries are actually having to pay their employees these days.

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