Monday Morning Coffee – Statistical Truth

Did you know that 93.4 % of all statistics quoted are made up?

Yep!

Most Stats are fictitious amalgamations, interpolations, surmises, and contrived opinions of relative Truth. The remaining 6.6% of statistics probably aren’t any more truthful, but I made up those percentages, so I guess it doesn’t really matter 🙂

Sure!

The person quoting the statistics likely believes them to be true based on (perhaps) lots and lots of number crunching and detailed research . . . along with a dose of assumptions and comparisons to “control groups” and/or Historical trends and data.

This can all be very confusing because any 2 extremely qualified “EXPERTS” can take the exact same set of information and draw polar opposite opinions of its meaning, scope and relevance to today’s environment.

If you don’t believe me, take a day off from work and turn on your TV and watch the news ALL day long. Every 30 minutes, flip to another news channel . . . Take notes . . . and marvel at the myriad interpretations of the news of the day.

Many folks don’t “get” this because we all tend to slide into routines and listen to the same group of folks every day . . . and before too long begin believing what they hear to be “Truth!”

The 5 principles and 1 law of Open Space Technology offer some simple ‘splainin’ as to why most statistics are far less useful than their quoters give them credit to be:

  • Whoever comes are the right People
  • Whenever it Starts is the Right time
  • Whatever Happens is the Only thing that could have
  • Wherever it happens is the Right Place
  • When it’s over – It’s OVER

The law of 2 feet: “If at any time you find yourself in a place where you are neither contributing nor receiving anything of value, it is YOUR responsibility to use your 2 feet to take yourself to a place where you CAN contribute and/or receive value – a Useful place.”

The inherent problem with integrity of statistics is that the 5 principles and Law of Open Space are ALWAYS in play in virtually ALL systems.

In 3 words . . . “EVERYTHING is MOVING!”

The only constant is change

What to do about this?

Beware the stats speakers!

Seek truth tellers . . . People who are ON THE GROUND and working every day in the pond into which you are wading.

These folks won’t tell you the probability of this, that, or anything really . . . What they’ll speak of will be “certainty” . . . Truths on which you can bank.

I saw the US Army learn this in a large way in a Road Building project through a jungle in which I participated several years ago. Prior to commencing the operation, The Army had done all of the analysis to determine requirements of equipment assets, personnel and logistical support to complete the mission.

Two surprises showed up . . .

  • LOTS of waterways requiring bridging assets that weren’t anticipated . . .
  • MONSOON season rendered the nearly finished road largely useless because all of the streams became full-fledged rivers and the bridges washed out to sea.

We asked the Natives if that particular year was different than other years in terms of the scale of the flooding and their response was an easy:

Like this every year . . .

Hmmm . . . a short conversation with a Native prior to the launch of the operation would not have required ANY statistical analysis and could very well have saved hundreds of millions dollars.

Let’s tie this down to something a little closer to home (and relevant to my expertise as a Real Estate Sales Professional and firm owner in Middle TN).

It drives me BONKERS to hear some of the real estate related statistics and projections which I know can be (and are) “well founded/supported” by Historical Data . . . but are so far from what I know to be reality that I am sometimes rendered speechless.

Before making any decisions based on news reported statistics, I hope you’ll first consult with a local Native Professional. . . It might just save you a LOT of headaches (and money).

The real estate market is as fluid now as I’ve ever seen in my 20 years of working with House Buyers and Sellers . . . Literally, Every Market in the country Including Middle Tennessee has DOZENS of “sub-markets” all of which are behaving differently in this raplex economic environment . . . Some are appreciating rapidly while others may still be in a downward spiral . . . “Area Statistics” are (IMHO) about as useless as they could be.

If you or anyone you know are pondering a decision relating to real estate

  • Up-size
  • Downsize
  • Build New
  • Add on to current House
  • Investment Property

Contact me . . . I AM a Native of Nashville and a 20 year Real Estate Sales Pro 🙂

I won’t shoot a bunch of stats at you, just the facts (Truth) as I know’m!

Just sayin’

Best,

b

PS – Statistics DO have a role as long as they’re used “responsibly” and relevantly.

How do statistics play a role in your work?

Do they simplify or complicate?

Published by Barry Owen

Strategist-CEO of Pareto Realty Real estate sales Professional Inviter-Facilitator-Practicer of Open Space Technology Opening safe space for people & organizations to self-organize around issues & opportunities BarryOwen.US Invite-Listen-Love

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